Gold was under pressure and fluctuated and closed down, The U.S. decides that the bulls still show buying interest next week

July. 26,2021
Gold was under pressure and fluctuated and closed down, The U.S. decides that the bulls still show buying interest next week

Gold market trading day (July 19-23) week: International gold London gold oscillated and closed down, further showing pressure.

In terms of trend, the price of gold opened at US$1810.94 per ounce at the beginning of the week. It was driven by the peaking cross last Thursday and the sharp fall last Friday. Risk appetite boosted safe-haven currencies. U.S. Treasury yields plummeted to the lowest level since February this year. U.S. stocks hit their biggest decline in nearly two months. The U.S. dollar fell from its daily highs, pushing gold prices to bottom and rebound rapidly. Recorded a weekly high of US$1824.72;

However, due to the strong resistance of the 200-day moving average, the large opening of the Dow, and a series of optimistic corporate financial reports and renewed optimism about the economy, the US dollar climbed to a three-month high, and U.S. bond yields rebounded sharply. , Inhibiting the inflow of funds into gold, and quickly fell again;

The trend continued to fall in the three days after Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, and recorded a weekly low of $1,789.96. However, the 100-day moving average has also shown multiple rebound opportunities. The bulls are also well supported by the physical market and have bottomed out for three consecutive days. Leaving a long lower shadow line, although the week finally closed down at 1801.30 US dollars, but also identified the strong willingness of the bulls, the market outlook still has the opportunity to resume the rebound upward again, the weekly amplitude of 34.76 US dollars, closed down 9.64 US dollars, a decrease of 0.53%.

Looking forward to next week (July 26-30): The main event will be the Fed's interest rate decision to be announced next week, and then the Fed Chairman Powell's press conference after the meeting.

According to the European Central Bank’s commitment this week to maintain interest rates at a record low for a period of time, the Fed and the European Central Bank are almost synchronized in providing a lower interest rate environment. Therefore, policy is expected to favor gold. Real interest rates are extremely low, which indicates that inflation continues to rise, and the Fed cannot make real interest rates positive in the short term, so there is still buying demand for gold.

Key data:

Next Monday (26th): US new home sales data. It is expected that the price of gold will be suppressed, so the 4-hour 200-period line resistance is still an important resistance.

Next Tuesday (27th): US durable goods orders and consumer confidence, the Consultative Council Consumer Confidence Index, and the initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in July. Pay attention to whether there are negative changes in consumer confidence.

Next Wednesday (28th): The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and Powell's press conference. If a hawkish change in the Fed's policy outlook triggers a sell-off in US stocks, the price of gold may remain flexible. On the other hand, due to the uncertainty caused by the delta variant of the coronavirus, the Fed may choose to adopt a more cautious tone and hint that it may postpone the reduction of debt purchases, thereby severely weighing on the US dollar. Therefore, the overall expectation is that the price of gold will be positive.

But according to the FOMC meeting in June, it is possible to raise interest rates twice in 2023. Therefore, there will be any strong intentional narratives in the meeting next week, that is, September may be the official announcement date for the reduction of the balance sheet, which may trigger the sellers of US Treasury bonds (higher yields), which may provide more momentum for the US dollar, and Put gold under pressure. But the individual is still biased towards the side that is positive for the price of gold.

Next Thursday (29th): US second quarter GDP data, initial jobless claims and pending home sales.

The preliminary estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the second quarter is expected to increase from 6.4% to 7.9%. Many strange movements in the US Treasury market are based on the idea that growth will slow down, which is definitely good for gold.

In addition, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States unexpectedly rose to a two-month high last week. Therefore, it is expected that although the initial application for next week may not be sure that the gold price will be good again, it will not cause too much pressure on the gold price.

Next Friday (30th): The Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, the US PCE price index.

Annual core personal consumption expenditure inflation is expected to rise to 3.7% from 3.4% in June. Higher-than-expected inflation data may support the dollar before the weekend, and vice versa.

Technically, weekly level: the price of gold fluctuated this week and closed down. Compared with last week’s further performance, it has encountered resistance and pressure. The 10-week moving average and 50% retracement level show strong pressure. At present, it has maintained 1903-1750 for three consecutive weeks. It runs within the 50%-23.6% retracement line of the downtrend, so the upper and lower breaks of this range will be the key continuation of the strength. The space for the continuation of the upward break is larger than the space for the continuation of the downward break, so from a longer-term perspective, the individual is still bullish.

Therefore, in terms of operation, you can still continue to refer to: stable long entry opportunities, near $1760 below the 23.6% retracement line of the break range support, stable entry opportunities for short singles, 61.8% after breaking through last week's high The $1853 near the retracement line, before that, kept trading within the range.

Daily level: The near-term technical outlook for gold prices is still neutral and bearish, as the price stays near the lower limit of the weekly consolidation channel. In addition, the relative strength index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart fell back below 50, indicating that buyers are struggling to maintain control.

Nonetheless, sellers may wait for the daily closing price of gold to fall below $1,796 (100-day moving average) and then seek to increase bearish pressure. If it falls below this level, $1790 (Friday's lowest point) will act as a temporary support. If it falls, we will further look at $1775 (the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level of the April-June uptrend) or the June low. Around 1750 dollars.

On the upside, the 200-day moving average has formed a strong resistance at $1820. If buyers push the price above this resistance, $1830 and $1835 (50-day moving average) may be considered as the next target price.

The 4-hour level is still the same as what has been said this week: the 100-period line is clearly out of the uptrend, and the probability that the 200-period line is relatively bullish is formed. In addition, long according to the new low of the dead cha and short the new high of the golden cha According to the principle, on June 22, after the formation of the dead fork, it refreshed the low point to 1750 US dollars and turned to the upside. At present, the golden fork has not formed, implying that the rebound trend is still peaking. Therefore, the retracement can still enter the market if it touches the support. The long lower shadow is charged twice, so I am more bullish.

But on the other hand, the 200-period line has also produced significant pressure, which has caused the rebounding gold price to meet resistance and fall back several times. At the same time, relative to $1,750, it has also stepped out of the top of the arc. This is a bearish signal. So although there are two trend expectations here, they do not affect the actual transaction in the slightest.

Operationally, the lower support focuses on yesterday's low and the 23.6% retracement line support does not break to maintain a bullish view, and the top focuses on the 200-period line and the 38.2% retracement line does not actually break to maintain the high altitude view, and treat it in shock within this.

International gold: below, pay attention to the support of 1796 US dollars and the support near 1790 US dollars; above, pay attention to the resistance near 1811 US dollars and 1815 US dollars, and further pay attention to 1822 US dollars.