Risk aversion concerns overwhelmingly weak data, the end of Golden Week is looking to bottom out

December. 02,2021
Risk aversion concerns overwhelmingly weak data, the end of Golden Week is looking to bottom out

Last trading day Wednesday (December 1st): International gold London gold rose and fell still closed. Once again leaving a long upper shadow at a relatively low level, it implies that the market outlook is limited and the market is about to bottom out and rebound.


In terms of trend, since the Asian market opened at US$1775.07 per ounce in early trading, and first recorded an intraday low of US$1772.03, the gold price stopped falling and rebounded. In noon, there were reports that the first case of omicron was found in the United States, which shocked the market. Driven by huge buying, it quickly hit the intraday high of $1794.03, and then fell back to near $1776 at the end of the day after encountering resistance;


After the opening of the European market, the trend turned strong again and continued into the evening. The number of small non-agricultural ADP employment declined, the yield of U.S. Treasuries fell, and the uncertainty of the impact of mutant virus strains boosted the price of gold. The U.S. market hit around 23 o'clock Near 1792 US dollars, but in the end it still fell under pressure,


Powell said that due to the strong economic growth in the United States, almost all forecasters expect that inflation will fall sharply in the second half of next year, the dollar will strengthen slightly, and once again suppressed the fall of gold prices to reach around $1777, but the U.S. stock market hit the two largest days since October 2020. The decline supported the price of gold to stop falling and closed at US$1781.62, with a daily amplitude of US$22, and closed up US$6.55, an increase of 0.37%.


Looking forward to today's Thursday (December 02): The international gold Asian market opened in a narrow range and was under pressure. The rebound in U.S. bond yields put pressure on it, but the trend is still on the low side, and it is still positive for gold prices in the medium and long term. In addition, the U.S. index rebounded after the fall and hit the track of the Japanese map, and after Powell's attitude turned to hawks, the short-term strength has increased. Although the United States has also found the first Omicron variant of Omicron, it also needs to be vigilant against vaccine-related news. Gold price. Individuals are still biased towards the bottoming stage recently.


 The main focus of the day is the number of layoffs by challenger companies in the United States in November and the data on initial applications. The market expects that the number of initial jobless claims may rise slightly. The overall bias is bullish gold prices. Therefore, it is still biased to do more on dips in the day.


Fundamentally, the market is currently in a stalemate, and the views between bulls and bears are polarized. The price of gold is still trapped in the range of $1770-1810.


   This week, Fed Chairman Powell continuously released hawkish messages, reiterating that Fed officials should consider ending the bond purchase plan early to curb inflation, and explained that the Fed has slowed down and finally ended the bond purchase plan, putting pressure on gold prices.


   However, safe-haven demand is still boosting gold's low rebound, in addition to the pessimistic Fed's Beige Book support, and the first confirmed case of Omicron in the United States, intensifying investors' concerns about risk appetite. And new restrictions will slow down the global economy, and the weaker U.S. dollar also boosted the demand for safe-haven metals. At the same time, because doubts about the new policy still exist, gold may benefit.


  Data at the end of the week, the market is also generally expected to be positive for gold prices. Together with the weaker ADP on Wednesday, there is also a positive outlook for Friday's non-agricultural activities. If Friday's US employment data confirms a strong labor market, gold prices will only be under short-term pressure. The trend is still volatile.




Weekly level: The price of gold has maintained a pressure and volatility this week. The rebound of the trend is also hitting the pressure position of the given Fibonacci extension line. The main chart still does not show the signal of bottoming out, indicating that there is still lower demand in the market outlook. , The overall indicators of the attached map are also in a dead-cross bearish trend; however, according to recent trends, the price of gold is also within the triangular trend line, so this fall will also be optimistic about touching the trend line support touching and turning to rising again .


   The 10-week moving average at the top and the resistance at the 30-week moving average hit a short order that can gain a certain amount of space. At the bottom, it focuses on the 50% retracement line and the upward trend line support, which can be optimistic about a good rebound.


 Daily level: The gold price has recently received a K-line pattern with a long upper shadow line at a relatively low level in the recent fall. This implies that the fall is in the exhaustion stage and is preparing to bottom out. The attached MACD short momentum column is also in a state of continuous shrinking. However, the downward strength of the fast and slow lines is still not enough. Therefore, although the market outlook is bullish, it will still face pressure and shocks for a period of time in the near future, and then come out of a recovering rebound. So the low point is still mentioned repeatedly recently, the 50% retracement line support, and the rising trend line support position.